It’s the time of year to reflect on life, business – and our best and worst posts. Your diligent scribe here at the Risk Matters blog had a few observations that proved prescient. Oh yes, there were some clunkers, too.
First, our post in August on the risk of a regulatory crackdown on Bitcoin was on the mark. In the past week, regulators from the US, China and elsewhere were issuing warnings about the virtual currency. We said at the time that the brazen calls for regulatory legitimacy by Bitcoin advocates paralleled efforts nearly a decade ago by the online gaming industry to win acceptance. Their efforts ended in a brutal and swift move by law enforcement. Sound familiar?
The Bitcoin post was one of our most widely shared commentaries of the year, proving that Bitcoin aficionados are ravenous for just about anything connected with the shiny digital coin.
Next, the Federal Reserve’s announcement a few days ago to begin winding down its extraordinary bond purchases (called, in a triumph of imagery, the “taper”) puts our defense of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke in a favorable light. We said in late September that the market’s harsh criticism of the Fed’s decision to delay the taper was misplaced. Ben’s plan was right on course, and so was his communication.
We’ve also written in the past year on the investment banking reformation, poking fun at the pious pledges from bank executives to reform their cultures. In fact, it is the market that is reshaping these firms, in its own brutal way. News from UBS that it is cutting staff again is the latest reminder of that fact – and a signal that the process has not reached an end.
Our final gold-star moment took a little longer to materialize. We wrote last December that the GOP would begin its long climb back to legitimacy when the fighting inside the party turned ugly. Well, it looks like that officially happened last week, with House speaker John Boehner lashing out at conservative activists for opposing the recent budget deal.
After taking those bows, it is only fair to point out where we got it wrong – or, to be kind, got it early. Really early in some cases.
First, carbon trading had a rough year. It has been one of our favorite subjects, but the year saw Japan withdraw from the Kyoto process and Europe struggle to revive its carbon-trading market. California’s cap-and-trade program had a solid first year but faces big hurdles.
And despite a truly awful year of system breakdowns, litigation, unhappy investors and inept communications, Nasdaq CEO Bob Greifeld remained in his post.
Well, there’s always next year.